AMDBOCOMMENTARY: Grim prospects for the future in a land no one seems to want

c. 1996 Religion News Service (Andrew M. Greeley is a Roman Catholic priest, best-selling novelist and a sociologist at the University of Chicago National Opinion Research Center. Check out his home page at http://www.agreeley.com or contact him via e-mail at agreel(at)aol.com.) OXFORD, England _ Northern Ireland is the land that no one seems to want. […]

c. 1996 Religion News Service

(Andrew M. Greeley is a Roman Catholic priest, best-selling novelist and a sociologist at the University of Chicago National Opinion Research Center. Check out his home page at http://www.agreeley.com or contact him via e-mail at agreel(at)aol.com.)

OXFORD, England _ Northern Ireland is the land that no one seems to want.


That depressing sentiment seemed to prevail at a meeting of scholars here on the Irish troubles recently convened by the British Academy and the Royal Irish Academy.

The British would like to be rid of Northern Ireland because of the enormous financial subsidy that they pour into it every year, though it is apparently of no national interest to them.

The Irish of the South don’t want economically depressed Northern Ireland because it would likely sink their fragile prosperity and bring Unionist politicians and their Orange Lodge allies to Dublin.

Trust is required for a solution to Northern Ireland’s troubles. But there is no trust in the quadrilateral relationship among London, Dublin, the Nationalists, who want the counties of the North to be part of the Irish state, and the Unionists, who want them to be part of Great Britain.

The Nationalists don’t trust the British when they say they want to get out of Northern Ireland. They also do not trust the Irish Government in Dublin to stand by them. In their distrust, they are not unwise.

The Unionists don’t trust the Dublin government when it says that it will never force unity against the will of the North, and in their distrust they are unwise.

The Nationalists, with ample reason, don’t trust anything London says. The Unionists, with some reason, do not trust their patrons in Westminster to stand by them.

London and Dublin are in basic agreement about a solution and the more moderate Nationalists in the North share that agreement. They all want a guarantee that the six counties of the North will never be forced into union against the will of the Protestant majority. They also want power-sharing for Catholics in the North; a recognition of Dublin’s interest in protecting the rights of the Catholics in the North; and some vague symbolic nod to the unity of the island.


This outline has been in place for almost a decade but no agreement has been negotiated and none seems likely.

To complicate matters, there is the question of what the majority is in the six counties now and what it will be in the decades to come. The best guess is that the six counties are 54 percent Protestant and 46 percent Catholic. But the demographic situation is changing.

Catholics comprise half of Northern Ireland’s population of those under 25 years of age. Catholic birth rates are higher and emigration rates lower than that of Protestants. Many Protestant young people go to England for their education and do not return. Queen’s University in Belfast, once a stronghold of Unionism, is now 60 percent Catholic. The university administration no longer plays”God Save the Queen”at graduation.

Some Protestant leaders argue that more than a simple majority is needed to unite with the South, despite the fact that they argue vigorously that a simple majority is sufficient to block unity.

At the Oxford conference, some scholars say the demographic shifts will lead to more violence. Others contend that when Protestants see their majority slipping away, they will leave Northern Ireland in droves. Still others believe that’s when the Unionists will be more ready to negotiate.

A Protestant scholar from the North, who was once part of the civil rights movement temporarily uniting young Protestants and young Catholics, said to me he had been away from Northern Ireland for a year and that he dreaded his return. I had no trouble understanding his emotions.


Hatred across religious lines has increased in the last quarter-century of the”troubles”; there is more animosity among the young than there has been since the surveys began.”The Protestants in the North have been on top. They want to stay on top,”a senior Irish civil servant said to me.”The Catholics in the North have been on the bottom. They want to be on top.” No one here would flatly rule out chances of peace in the years to come. However, the majority of them were betting on the alternative possibility: more violence.

MJP END GREELEY

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