c. 1998 Religion News Service

(Andrew M. Greeley is a Roman Catholic priest, best-selling novelist and a sociologist at the University of Chicago National Opinion Research Center. Check out his home page at http://www.agreeley.com or contact him via e-mail at agreel(at)aol.com.)

DUBLIN _ In the wake of last week’s election for the new Northern Ireland Assembly, there is considerable fear among the professional worriers in this city that the”wreckers”in the Assembly will destroy it and the Good Friday peace agreement.

On the face of it that fear seems unrealistic.

Three quarters of the members of the Assembly support the agreement. Ninety percent of those interviewed in the exit polls want their parties to make the Assembly work. The $70,000 a year salary _ including expenses _ of members is an extra motive to make it work. How could a tiny minority frustrate the will of the majority?

The Irish, however, have long memories.

They remember that the”wreckers”_ led then, as now, by Protestant demagogue the Rev. Ian Paisley _ destroyed a previous attempt at power sharing. They remember the general strike of Protestant workers, the refusal of the English army to maintain order, and the collapse of former Prime Minister Harold Wilson in the face of Protestant pressure. The same thing could happen again, local commentators fear.

But there isn’t going to be a strike this time and Prime Minister Tony Blair isn’t going to back down. The last time around there was not a 75 percent vote for power sharing between Catholics and Protestants.

Yet one can understand their fears. Only a thin majority of Protestants backed the Good Friday agreement in the referendum in May. The pro-agreement Protestants have no more than a tiny majority among Protestants in the Assembly. While there are enough of them to govern according to the complicated weighted voting rules, no one is absolutely certain the moderate Protestant leadership has the courage to face down the minority”wreckers”inside their own community.

Theoretically, a minority of less than 25 percent of the people in Northern Ireland could destroy the agreement. There are some issues on which they might be able to do just that.

Such an event is unlikely, but not impossible _ not on this island.

David Trimble, himself a”wrecker”25 years ago but now a”moderate,”is likely to become the First Minister of the new government. But he will need the votes of the IRA-linked Sinn Fein. Moreover, if the rules of the agreement are followed, Sinn Fein is entitled to two seats in the 10 person cabinet.

Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein and Paisley will sit around the same table, a situation which amuses and delights Adams and his cronies, but which will infuriate Paisley. Paisley, who already has two parliamentary salaries _ one from the English parliament and one from the European parliament _ could well afford to walk out.

Trimble is likely to stall establishing the cabinet on the grounds that unless the IRA turns in all its weapons, Sinn Fein has no right to a seat. The issue is phony because the IRA could turn in its weapons tomorrow and buy more the next day, but it is symbolically important to Northern Protestants. Trimble could use this issue to restore his influence in the Protestant community.

Unfortunately for him, it would cost him not only the Sinn Fein votes but those of the more moderate Catholics in the Assembly without whose support he cannot govern. He is caught in a dilemma. Either he tries to placate his internal Protestant opposition or he governs with the support of Catholics in his external coalition. He cannot do both.

This dilemma has always been there and will remain as long as the Protestant community is split down the middle. The election last week merely confirmed the existence of that split. It did not make it worse.

The most crucial challenge is the creation of”cross-border”agencies in which the new Northern Ireland government will combine on some matters with the Republic of Ireland. Such cooperation is required in the Good Friday Agreement by October. Protestant dissidents in the Assembly members will do all in their power to block the implementation of such cooperation. If they do, the Good Friday Agreement will be dead.

Such an outcome is unlikely but by no means impossible. One wonders what Tony Blair would do then, to say nothing of the IRA.

DEA END GREELEY