c. 2004 Religion News Service

BOSTON _ The message to the Kerry campaign from Jews is clear: Don’t take us for granted.

Jewish voters may not be flocking from the traditionally Democratic stronghold to the Bush-Cheney ticket in large numbers, but Jewish Democrats gathered here for their presidential nominating convention are working to remind the party that Jews are a key constituency and may be somewhat “in play” in November.

The National Jewish Democratic Council convened a panel of experts here to discuss the question, “Are Jews trending Republican?” and strategize how the Jewish community might combat GOP efforts to recruit from their ranks.

Particularly in swing states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, the relatively high concentration of Jews could tip the balance in the very close presidential race.

The Bush campaign has stated a goal of winning at least 30 percent of the Jewish vote in the November election. Bush won roughly 20 percent in 2000, which was slightly lower than what he had been expected to receive.

To achieve their goal, the Bush campaign has launched an outreach effort targeted specifically at Jewish voters.

The campaign is taking its case to Jewish community centers and local Jewish federation groups across the country. Vice President Dick Cheney addressed a federation in Boca Raton, Fla., in May, and Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., is traveling the country, spearheading the national Jewish outreach effort for the campaign.

Coleman, who has recently spoken to Jewish groups in Florida, New York, California and Maryland, said the Republican message of entrepreneurship, education as embodied in the “No Child Left Behind” legislation and winning the war on terror resonates with Jewish values.

“Folks get it,” said Coleman, one of two Jewish Republican senators, who visited the Democratic convention as a Republican surrogate. “In the end, you don’t have to vote the way your grandma and grandpa did.”

Coleman insisted that Jews are attracted to the GOP for more than just its policy on Israel, but scholars say there is little else in the Republican platform that would be attractive to Jews.

“On the one side, Jews are pulled toward the White House because of the strength and support for the Israeli government position,” said Mark Silk, who directs the Leonard E. Greenberg Center for the Study of Religion in Public Life at Trinity College in Hartford, Conn.

But at the same time, a survey released in late July reported that white evangelical support for President Bush has risen by 8 percentage points since the 2000 election _ a fact that may dissuade some Jews who are suspicious of Christian conservatives.

“When Christians are on the march, Jews tend to run in the opposite direction,” said Silk, who added that he would be “surprised” if the Bush campaign achieved its goal.

Some Jewish delegates at the convention have observed the Republican plan in action.

“I’ve met the Jewish Republicans,” said Jonathan R. Siegel, a Palm Beach, Fla., resident who at age 18 is the youngest member of his battleground state’s delegation.

“Their ranks are no larger than they’ve ever been,” he said. “Jews will always be a loyal Democratic constituency.”

While many at the NJDC panel largely agreed, panelists reminded the audience to remember their history.

Though NJDC founder Steve Grossman called Jewish Republicans “an oxymoron,” Jews did not become a solidly Democratic voting bloc until 1928, when a Roman Catholic, Al Smith, ran for president on a platform of religious tolerance. Through the years of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, the Jewish Democratic commitment solidified, garnering Roosevelt an estimated 90 percent of the Jewish vote at one point.

The highest Jewish support for a recent Republican president came in 1980, when Ronald Reagan won around 40 percent of the Jewish vote because of Jewish dissatisfaction with then-President Jimmy Carter’s handling of the Israeli situation.

Polling data today are mixed on whether the Republican strategy might have its desired effect.

An exit poll conducted after the 2002 midterm elections showed that 35 percent of Jewish voters supported Republican candidates _ a 15-point jump from the 2000 presidential election results. Jewish Democrats downplayed the findings, saying the sample size was too small. Still, analysts say the survey was significant.

“It is evident that at least some Jews are willing to vote for a Republican in a close election,” said John C. Green, who directs the Bliss Center at the University of Akron in Ohio.

Nonetheless, panelists at the convention did not put much stock in Republican hopes of a significant shift in Jewish loyalty.

“There has not been any fundamental realignment of the Jewish community,” said Mark Mellman, a pollster and senior adviser to the Kerry campaign.

The campaign, which sends out a “Jewish outreach” e-mail weekly to more than 1,000 subscribers, must not take the Jewish community for granted, panelists urged, but must have faith that Democratic values are more attractive to Jewish voters.

“We expect a more activist government here at home and around the world,” said Ann Lewis, the former Clinton communications director and current president of the Democrat Party Women’s Vote Center.

Panelists also discussed a tension between courting the Arab and Muslim vote and continuing to project a message of support for Israel that will make Jewish voters comfortable.

“It’s mighty tough both to get the Arab Muslim vote and to get the Jewish vote,” said Jonathan Sarna, a professor of Jewish history at Brandeis University.

Sarna said Arab Muslim voters have distanced themselves from Bush over issues like civil liberties and the Patriot Act, but said Jews remain sensitive about the commitment of their politicians to Israel.

“It’s going to be very easy to make a misstep when you go after that seemingly ripe fruit” of the Arab Muslim vote, Sarna said.

KRE/PH END ROSSI