c. 1998 Religion News Service

(Andrew M. Greeley is a Roman Catholic priest, best-selling novelist and a sociologist at the University of Chicago National Opinion Research Center. Check out his home page at http://www.agreeley.com or contact him via e-mail at agreel(at)aol.com.)

UNDATED _ It is never easy to give up power; no one does it readily or gracefully.

The essence of the recently reached Northern Ireland peace accord, however, requires the Unionists _ the Protestant majority _ to give up much of the power they have enjoyed for 300 years. They still will have some power, but it will be shared power _ not nearly as good as total power over what they have long viewed as the supposedly inferior and subject people, Northern Ireland’s Roman Catholics.

The referendum to implement the fragile accord seems likely to pass, but the question is by what margin. Most of the Catholics _ between 40 percent and 45 percent of the people in the six counties _ will vote for it: The agreement, after all, grants them power they never had before.

More crucial is the Protestant vote.

If only one-sixth of the Protestants vote for it, the plan will win by a small majority but with hardly enough support to be truly meaningful.

Will Protestant leader David Trimble _ in the face of Union militants bent on scuttling the agreement _ be able to deliver half of the Protestant vote so the final result will show a healthy majority of the people of Northern Ireland supporting the accord?

Past surveys indicate there is that much support for the major provisions of the plan but the militants have killed two previous agreements _ in 1973 and 1985.

Moreover, the outlines of the new pact have been on the table for at least 10 years. Only the election of British Prime Minister Tony Blair could force the Unionists to the bargaining table. While it is unlikely the demagogues can kill this pact, they can turn much of the Unionist population against it.

In such circumstances, the Unionist leaders will drag their feet on what are to them the most irksome provisions of the agreement _ the reform of the Royal Ulster Constabulary, which is perhaps the most”bent”police force in the civilized world; the release of political prisoners; the creation of a cross border executive; and a Sinn Fein minister on the Northern Ireland executive.

The media dutifully tell us both the IRA and its Protestant counterparts are the major threat to the peace agreement. The gunmen can make trouble and almost certainly will, though the mainline IRA will probably accept the accord as a step toward a united Ireland and to obtain the release of their prisoners. The more serious threat comes from Unionist hardliners like the Rev. Ian Paisley and their followers.

Will there be a united Ireland someday? I am inclined to think there almost certainly will _ perhaps within a generation, as Catholics become a majority of the population in the wake of Protestant emigration.

If, in the meantime, the two communities can learn to live together in peace, the transition will be smooth. But living together will not be easy, especially when one side has been able to violate the basic human rights of the other for 80 years.

The Unionist leaders are absolutely correct when they say the IRA used violence to force its way to the conference table and, in effect, impose the agreement on the Protestant population.

One may deplore _ as I do _ the violence of the gunmen and still admit that without them the negotiations leading to the Good Friday agreement would never have happened and there would be no pact.

On the other hand, there never would have been violence if the Unionist majority had been willing to grant Catholics their legitimate rights at any time during the past 80 years. The violence of Unionist oppression caused the violence of the Republican response.

There is one delightful, even visionary, provision in the agreement calling for the creation of a British-Irish Intergovernmental Council, a consultative body of members of the British, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, and Northern Irish governments.

Might there emerge eventually a”United States of the Isles?” Not for a long time. Yet there were times in the past when that might have been possible, if not for English imperialism.

Who would not say that someday such a dream will become a reality and the citizens of the various independent but united countries will wonder how it could ever have been otherwise.

DEA END GREELEY