c. 2003 Religion News Service

(UNDATED) Officially, Roman Catholic cardinals from around the world are gathering at the Vatican this week to celebrate Pope John Paul II’s 25th anniversary, the appointment of 30 new cardinals and Mother Teresa’s beatification.

Unofficially, they’re preparing for their next likely meeting: choosing a successor to the physically frail John Paul.

There are no official papal candidates. A church ban on papal electioneering and a taboo against even discussing succession while the current pontiff is alive will relegate such talk, among cardinals at least, to private side conversations over food and wine at Roman restaurants or during interludes in scheduled events, Vatican observers say.

“What you’ll have are people conducting very oblique conversations,” said Monsignor Robert Wister, a Seton Hall University church historian and CBS analyst for the next papal election. “One cardinal might sound another one out, and say, `What does Your Eminence think about the situation of the church in China?’ or `What does Your Eminence think about the church in the United States?”’

Speculating on John Paul’s successor is old sport among seasoned Vatican-watchers, who have scrutinized the ups and downs of the pope’s health for close to a decade now. In that time, the pope has outlived many of those mentioned as “papabili,” the Italian term for those considered contenders to become pope.

The conjecture has increased in recent weeks as John Paul, who suffers from Parkinson’s disease, arthritis and other ailments, has canceled or struggled through appearances. Two cardinals were quoted in newspapers speaking of him as “dying” or “in a bad way.”

“You can’t watch the pope these days without thinking about how and when the end might come,” said John L. Allen Jr., author of “Conclave,” about the next papal election, and Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter.

“Inevitably, cardinals can’t help just looking at one another and wondering who from this group will emerge as a possible pope,” he said. “That’s just human nature.”

That’s why the cardinals’ presence at this week’s events foreshadows, in the minds of many, the next conclave. Besides scheduled events for themselves, the cardinals will attend the special 25th anniversary Mass for the pope on Thursday (Oct. 16), have lunch with the pope on Saturday, and gather for the beatification of Mother Teresa on Sunday.

Many Vatican experts viewed the pope’s announcement last month of 30 new cardinals _ plus one whose name was not revealed _ as his final chance to influence the selection of his successor. Among the new group are cardinals from Nigeria, Vietnam, Brazil, India and the United States.

When the pope dies, the new appointees will join what is expected to be the most culturally diverse set of cardinals ever to enter a conclave. The geographical makeup has led to speculation that whoever replaces Polish-born John Paul will become the second non-Italian pontiff since Hadrian VI in the 1500s.

With the new appointments, 135 cardinals are eligible to vote for the new pope. The rules call for a two-thirds majority to elect a pope, but cardinals may amend the rules to call for a simple majority.

Italy, with 23 cardinals eligible to vote, still has more than any other country, but influential blocs could form among the 24 voting Latin American cardinals, the 13 Asian ones, the 13 African ones, or among cardinals anxious for a non-European pope.

Cultural alliances could be unreliable predictors, though. “I don’t see any indication all the Italians are united behind one person, or that the Latin Americans are united behind one person,” said the Rev. Thomas Reese, editor of the Jesuit magazine America.

Among the cardinals frequently mentioned as contenders are Francis Arinze of Nigeria, Dionigi Tettamanzi of Italy, Oscar Maradiaga of Honduras and Giovanni Re of Italy. One Internet gambling site lists Tettamanzi as the favorite, at 2-to-1 odds.

But there’s an old Italian saying regarding the uncertain fate of favorites heading into a conclave: “He who goes in a pope comes out a cardinal.”

“Anyone who tells you they have a real idea of who is electable is talking through their hat,” said George Weigel, director of the Catholic studies program at the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington and author of an authorized biography of John Paul II. “This is a very wide-open process.”

Books written about the next conclave include speculation that the cardinals, wary of the increased centralization of Vatican authority that has occurred during John Paul’s long reign _ the fourth-longest in papal history _ will favor an older pope unlikely to live long enough to consolidate as much power.

“While all of the cardinals like John Paul II very much, there may be a backlash at the conclave against the Vatican bureaucracy,” Reese said. “Even (a) conservative bishop wants to be left alone so he can run a diocese as he sees fit and not be second-guessed by people in Rome.”

John Paul II was 58 when chosen pope. Reese predicted cardinals will choose a replacement under the age of 75, probably between 65 and 72.

“It’s already been a number of years with a sick, old pope, and if they elect an older man, we are quickly going to return to having an ailing pope,” he said. “I’m not sure the cardinals would think that would be good.”

History shows that selecting an older pope does not always translate into a short reign. When cardinals selected Cardinal Gioacchino Pecci as pope in 1878, he was 68 years old. As Pope Leo XIII, he reigned for 25 years and five months, dying in 1903 at age 93 to end the third-longest papacy.

Other important qualifications are likely to be an engaging personality and language skills. Also important will be candidates’ stances on gender, sex, poverty and ecumenism, observers say.

“Different parts of the world have different issues,” Reese said. “Certainly the Americans are going to want someone elected who understands the sex abuse crisis and won’t say anything dumb about it that could make matters worse. The Third World wants someone who’s going to speak out for social justice and defend the poor and not kowtow to the American superpower.

“The Africans want someone who will dialogue with the Muslims but also stand up for the rights of Catholics. The North Americans and Europeans will want someone strong on ecumenism, and also sensitive to women’s issues,” he said.

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