c. 2005 Beliefnet

(UNDATED) The first thing you need to know in handicapping the election of the next pope is that anyone who says he knows who will be chosen doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

The second thing you need to know is that anyone who wants the job doesn’t know what he’s talking about, either, and he probably won’t get it anyway. As one of those old Roman sayings goes, “He who enters the conclave a pope comes out a cardinal.”

In making their choice, the cardinals believe the Holy Spirit _ the “grande elettore” _ leads them. But they also know that choosing a pope is a political process, albeit politics with a difference.

In secular elections, political parties tend to start with candidates who can appeal to voters _ in other words, you find the person and then you build the platform. Papal politics works in the reverse. The cardinals will first argue over the platform for the next papacy, then choose among their number a man to fit that platform.

The first thing spectators should remember is that there really are no “liberals” in the College of Cardinals, in the sense of men who will upend the church’s moral teachings, especially on matters of sexuality. There are, however, many different personalities who will bring different styles of governance to the papacy, and style will be as important as substance to the future Catholic agenda.

So how will the cardinals go about settling on a new pope this time around? John Allen, the veteran Vatican correspondent for National Catholic Reporter, has set out a number of criteria and candidates, as well as several “parties” that will be competing to see their respective agendas succeed:

_ The “Border Patrol” of conservatives seeking to enforce adherence to Roman pronouncements on everything, from liturgy to theology.

_ The “Reform Party” of progressives looking for a loosening of such a top-down management style in which whatever Rome says goes, no matter how small the issue.

_ The “Social Justice” cohort concerned with poverty and human rights issues.

_ The “Integralists” who want to promote a more vigorous _ some say aggressive _ Catholic presence in secular culture and politics.

An alternative voice to Allen’s is that of papal biographer George Weigel, who believes the conclave may focus on three issues: the virtual collapse of formal Christian practice in Europe, the rise of militant Islam, and the challenges posed by the biotechnology revolution.

There is, however, another way to view the coming process by which the cardinals will pick the next pope, with each stage leading to a different ending, sort of like an online novel that allows readers to choose from a menu of options and change the direction of the plot at any given point.

Here, then, is a progression of questions that many insiders believe the cardinals will answer as they move toward their final selection:

Inward or Outward Bound?

The hallmark of John Paul II’s lengthy papacy was his Olympian record of travels outside Italy _ nearly 800,000 miles on 104 trips. Given that popes were considered virtual prisoners of the Vatican until the mid-20th century, John Paul’s journeys were astounding. But even as the personal touch made John Paul enormously popular, many church leaders wondered whether he should have spent more time in Rome minding the store. Many bishops feel he gave the Roman Curia _ the papal bureaucracy _ too much free rein, and that the church’s civil service tried to micromanage the church from the Vatican.

Others feel that John Paul did not take enough care in appointing effective bishops, and that problems such as the clergy sexual abuse scandal _ while not his direct responsibility _ might have been averted with stricter oversight. Many cardinals believe the next pope needs to focus on building up the church from within rather than making the pope a “rock star” who will provide great headlines but little in terms of concrete reforms.

A Negotiator or a Crusader?

If the cardinals decide they need a stay-at-home pope, the next question is what kind of style they will want from the new pope. Some cardinals will argue the next pope should be a “progressive” who will allow more innovation on matters such as lay preachers, women deacons or perhaps optional celibacy for priests. Others say what is needed is the opposite, a strong-willed man who will better enforce orthodoxy _ some would call it “retro Catholicism” _ in the ranks.

This can be viewed as a choice between someone who is willing to dialogue _ to negotiate _ with the realities of the modern world and the modern church, and someone who will resist that siren song, a crusader against too much adaptation. Mentioned most frequently among reformers are prelates such as Cardinal Godfried Danneels of Belgium and Scottish Cardinal Keith O’Brien.

The patriarch of Lisbon, Cardinal Jose da Cruz Policarpo, is not necessarily a reformer but he is widely admired for his intellect and his interest in re-evangelizing Europe. Cardinal Christoph Schonborn of Vienna is seen as someone who would continue in the ways of John Paul II, but his experience with restive Catholics in Austria might make him more amenable to innovation, some believe.

On the other side are men like the Bavarian Joseph Ratzinger, the pope’s longtime doctrinal watchdog at the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. Ratzinger has been alternatively praised and criticized for his tough statements on topics like homosexuality (“objectively disordered”) and the validity of other Christian denominations. His onetime lieutenant, Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone of Genoa, would be in a similar vein.

North or South?

More than two-thirds of the world’s 1.1 billion Catholics live in the Southern Hemisphere, and it is inevitable that a future pope will hail from the developing world. Such a pope would be considered a powerful and prophetic statement about the church’s focus on social justice and human rights, but many would see that selection as effectively writing off northern Christendom _ and much of the modern world.

Whether the next pope should be from the developing South versus the industrial North is a major question facing the conclave. About 45 percent of the world’s Catholics are in Latin America, 26 percent in Europe, 13 percent in Africa and 10 percent in Asia. Yet while the College of Cardinals has continued to “internationalize” under John Paul, the Catholic population figures do not match up with their representation in the college.

An African cardinal would follow in the groundbreaking tradition of John Paul II, who was the first non-Italian pope in more than 450 years. More than anywhere else in the world, Africa also seems to be the future of Christianity, and especially of Catholicism: The number of African Catholics has spiked from 7 million in 1914 to 120 million in 2000, and by 2025 it is projected that there will be more Catholics in Africa than in Europe. The African candidate mentioned most frequently is Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, a captivating personality who has spent 20 years at the Vatican and is considered more Roman than African. A more likely African candidate might be the South African, Cardinal Wilfrid Fox Napier of Durban.

Even more likely, however, is that the first Southern Hemisphere pope will come from Latin America, which has close ties to Europe, as well as being home to nearly half the world’s Catholics. Popular candidates in this category would be Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera of Mexico, and the most widely mentioned, Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras.

Collaboration or Centralization?

Trumping all issues in the next conclave, many believe, will be the debate over the increasing centralization of papal authority. And it is this issue that could shortcut all of the others.

The papacy of John Paul II saw a significant uptick in the trend of concentrating authority at the Holy See and in the Holy Father. This is often seen as Rome trying to “run” the church as if it were General Motors or Coca-Cola. Enforcing liturgical rules, disciplining theologians or reviewing diocesan finances are among the oft-cited examples of this style.

But the papacy has also been centralized by John Paul’s enormous charisma. Through his travels and his actor’s gift for communicating, John Paul _ and the papacy _ became identified with “the church,” a tendency that cardinals on all sides have grown weary of.

Many hope the next pope will allow the bishops to operate _ even experiment _ more freely according to their own needs, such as lay preachers in limited circumstances in Switzerland, and specific sexual abuse rules for the church in the United States.

German Cardinal Walter Kasper, a member of the Vatican bureaucracy, is in favor of a more “collegial” approach _ that is, one that fosters dialogue and collaboration with Rome. But others could fit the bill, such as a Franciscan from Brazil, Cardinal Claudio Hummes, who is traditional on doctrinal matters, but also supports greater decentralization in the church.

The irony is that the papal prognosticators might even get it right this time and choose an odds-on favorite who emerges onto the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. But what he does from there on out is anybody’s bet.

KRE/PH END GIBSON