Swing States Swinging Obama

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Quinnipiac’s latest swing state poll shows Obama leading in Colorado (49-44), Michigan (57-36), Minnesota (54-37), and Wisconsin (52-39). On the religion front, white evangelicals show considerable consistency: CO: 65-29; MI: 60-31; MN: 55-38; and WI: 59-32. This is not good news for McCain, because it shows Obama attracting a greater proportion of the white evangelical vote than John Kerry received in 2004. As in, CO: 74-26 and MI: 71-29. (The evangelical question was not asked in MN and WI; “conservative Christians” in those states went for Bush by 91-9 and 91-8 respectively.) If Obama picks up some of the undecideds, he’ll can cut the Republican margin among white evangelicals roughly from 4-1 to 3-1–no small difference in many states.
As for Catholics, there the picture is a bit more mixed. In Colorado, it’s 52-38 for McCain among white Catholics, as compared to 52-46 for Bush in 2004–but the latter is for all Catholics, not just white ones. If Latino Catholics are excluded from the Quinnipiac survey, then Obama is probably running ahead of Kerry among all Catholics, given the large proportion of Latinos among Colorado Catholics. In Michigan, it’s 54-38 for McCain among white Catholics; it was 50-49 among all Catholics for Kerry. In Minnesota, white Catholics are breaking 50-40 for Obama, whereas in 2004 all Catholics only tipped slightly for Kerry, 50-49. And in Wisconsin, it’s Obama ahead among white Catholics 49-44–just about the same margin by which Kerry prevailed over Bush (52-48). (For the 2004 exit polls see here.)
Altogether, the Obama people would seem to be well positioned to make inroads among both white evangelicals and white Catholics.